Oil Endgame 1: Doubling Oil Efficiency?
Bet you know what AEman's going to say on this one. RMI says doubling oil efficiency is one fourth of the solution to coming up roses by 2025, and that the transportation sector, particularly cars and light trucks is the sweet spot for this improvement. Great. So How do we do it? Make vehicles lighter using new tech. What makes RMI think humans, particularly US-based humans, will go for something smart like this? Read:
Growing evidence suggests that besides fuel taxes and efficiency regulations,
there’s an even better way: light vehicles can become very efficient through
breakthrough engineering that doesn’t compromise safety, size, performance,
cost, or comfort, but enhances them all. Disruptive technology could make
government intervention, though potentially still very helpful, at least less
vital: customers would want such vehicles because they’re better, not because
they’re efficient, much as people buy digital media instead of vinyl phonograph
records. Of course, the hopeful AEman, is quite a bit skeptical about this. Barring sudden global calamity (see "The Day After Tomorrow" - spectacular, but silly) most Americans (does AEman have a problem with "most Americans"?) will opt for heavy metal every time. Only one thing helps us get our heads on straight when we aren't seeing something clearly: ass-kicking competition. Check this out:
The 2004 Prius is not only ~104% more efficient in ton-mpg than a modern
non-hybrid; it also gets 38% more ton-mpg than the 1998 Prius. That six-year
gain beats the average new U.S. light vehicle’s gain during the past 26 years
(1977–2003).
Ahhh. Sooo. GM is getting ready to re-live the sins of the past when it mistook a car with "toy" as part of its name for a joke. Except this surprise is no surprise at all ... excepting the fact that hybrids arrived on our fair shores a full ten years before US auto industry projections expected them. Or maybe the car guys were guilty of wishful thinking. AEman knows all about that. Bet you do too. Until the next post then, when we'll attempt to vet RMI's thinking on "creative business models and policies" ... that'll be exciting for sure. Better buckle up.
posted by Andy Bochman at 8:54 PM
 
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