Double Take: World Energy Outlook 2004 Bitchslaps
The soothing language of large NGOs attempts to lull AEman and others into complacency. But no, a true perusal (vocab builder: that's a close read, not a quick scan) reveals multiple cases of major league mischief for the US economy and the global environment. In no particular order I give you:
"Well over two-thirds of the projected increase in emissions will come from developing countries" Great news. This means that the US has to move fast to develop and deploy new AE tech at home, but also that it's a race against the clock to get new AE products sold globally. Other than feasibility issues, do you know anybody who's got a freakin problem with this? Save the planet, make big money. Hello! Which part of get our asses in gear don't you understand? Developing countries, where production and demand are set to increase most, will require about half of global energy investment. This means, according to the IEA's estimate of $550 billion per year total, that the developing world market size for new power tech is north of $275 billion per year through 2030. Or maybe we'd be just as happy selling old power tech and bringing on climate change for our kids and grandkids all the faster. These days seven generations are hard to imagine. The ... trends [described in the IEA] Reference Scenario, are ... not unalterable. More vigorous government action could steer the world onto a markedly different energy path. [The 2004 Outlook study] presents an Alternative Scenario, which analyses, for the first time, the global impact of environmental and energy-security policies that countries around the world are already considering, as well as the effects of faster deployment of energy-efficient technologies. This is the beginning of goodness. Not the whole enchilada, mind you, not close. But sort of like this blog, which is really just a forum for conjuring an AE "alternative scenario". Wonder what made 2004 so different from previous years that it prompted this radical action from the IEA? The IEA calls on all parties to work together to devise and implement a universally-recognised, transparent, consistent and comprehensive data-reporting system for oil and gas reserves. The reliability of reserves data reported by oil companies has been called into severe question. Doubts about the accuracy of reserve estimates – an issue highlighted in this Outlook – could undermine investor confidence and slow investment.
This is Holy Shit #1. Thanks to BP's bombshell mea culpa earlier this year, many are wondering just how much oil really is in the ground. It's funny that the IEA seems confident in parts of its report that we've got plenty of supply to keep growing through 2030, and at the same time questions the very foundations on which its forecasts are based. As international trade expands, risks will grow of a supply disruption at the critical chokepoints through which oil must flow. A total of 26 million barrels currently pass through the Straits of Hormuz and the Straits of Malacca every day. Traffic through these and other vital channels will more than double over the projection period.
Holy Shit #2 brings this somewhat verbose post to a typically happy close. Global confidence in the current energy supply infrastructure is poised to plummet with just one significant terrorist event in the Persian Gulf or Asia. Alarm bells going off for old energy yet? Even without the gift of prophecy you can feel one of these coming, can't you? This is very bad juju indeed. Let's work to quickly bring about the day when nothing of importance to us travels regularly through such trecherous terrain.
posted by Andy Bochman at 10:36 PM
 
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