IEA's Publishes "World Energy Outlook 2004"
The International Energy Agency released its yearly appraisal of the state of global energy affairs a couple of weeks ago. You can read the 10-page summary gratis or shell out ~ $150 for the full report.
AEman's short take is that the IEA is a bit more sanguine about oil reserves than many other folks, saying they think we can continue to experience increases in supply that match the rapid increases in demand for about thirty more years. The big caveat they attach to that, however, is the question of whether the necessary exploration and infrastructure investments (approx $16 trillion) will be made in the most volatile regions in what promises to be an increasingly insecure world.
You know though, that AEman isn't too interesting in talking about oil - he's just an excitable boy for new (aka sustainable) energy sources. So here's the IEA money quote on what they call the "alternate scenario", which means the unlikely future wherein normally idiotic, knuckle dragging governments and the oil industrial complex members don't wait till the last drop of crude is gone and/or the climate warms up enough to make SUVs submersible underwater vehicles. Otherwise, it's Captain Nemo here we come!:
It is clear from our analysis that achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for technological breakthroughs that radically alter how we produce and use energy. The government actions envisioned in our Alternative Scenario could slow markedly carbon-dioxide emissions, but they could not reduce them significantly using existing technology. Carbon capture and storage technologies, which are not taken into account in either the
Reference or the Alternative Scenario, hold out the tantalising prospect of using
fossil fuels in a carbon-free way. Advanced nuclear-reactor designs or breakthrough renewable technologies could one day help free us from our dependence on fossil fuels. This is unlikely to happen within the timeframe of our analysis. The pace of technology development and deployment in these and other areas is the key to making the global energy system more economically, socially and environmentally sustainable in the long term. But
consumers will have to be willing to pay the full cost of energy – including environmental costs – before these technologies can become competitive. Governments must decide today to accelerate this process.
That last line concerns me ... "goverments must decide today". I mean, I'd be happy if it happened, but who's kidding who? No offense, but did you ever see "Waiting for Godot"? He never shows up. That's not acceptable theater at this point.
posted by Andy Bochman at 9:08 PM
 
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